Demographic Challenges: Critical Thinking and Values Based Leadership Seminar
Demographic Challenges Seminar Feedback, Introduction and Content
Wednesday, 27 April 2022 9.00am to 11.30am & 1.30pm – 4.00pm
Thursday, 28 April 9.00am –1 1.30am
Moderated by: Neil Jacobstein, Professor Alan Gamlen, Distinguished Prof. Emeritus Paul Spoonley
Feedback
Over three sessions participants from commerce, farming, government, tourism, and students studying engineering, education, foreign policy and demography discussed in-depth the facts, trends and challenges ahead of ageing populations, declining fertility and migration driven to fill skill shortages, from wars and climate change. Many were migrants (some recent) from South Africa, Canada, Europe, UK, and South Africa bringing a different perspective to the discussion, at times referring to themselves as the ‘invisible migrant’.
Here is what some had to say:
I enjoyed attending The Aspen Institute New Zealand seminar on demographic changes this week as a member of the U.S. Embassy Youth Council. We had an interesting discussion about the challenges posed by demographic changes to Aotearoa New Zealand and the wider world. My perspective on these issues changed. I would highly recommend these seminars to anyone interested in coming up with solutions to the future challenges facing our society. Timothy Lawler, Phd Student, University of Auckland.
Thank you very much for the last two days and organising a pretty cool experience for myself and the others. I was blown away by the complexity of the topics however there were so many key points that I truly believe need to get out to others! Anika Fouchee, Canterbury University, degree in Youth and Community Leadership, minor in Education
Congratulations on another successful Aspen Institute seminar. I really value these important conversations. It’s really got me thinking. I like the pace … gave everyone space to process. Jacq Knight Klisser
The demographic challenges conversation providing really important insights into demographic changes nationally and internationally and I am much better informed about the demographic challenges we face.
The readings, the expert facilitation and the input from a demographically diverse group helped me learn about causes for the recent national and international demographic changes. The format requires discipline in preparation and in active participation. Reading the advance publications is vital preparation. Listening to the input of others helped me develop a better understanding. Diana Hubbard
Below is the material sent to the participants in advance prepared by the moderators.
Introduction
This Demographic Challenges seminar is the sixth in the Aspen Institute New Zealand series on Critical Thinking and Values Based Leadership. We anticipate continuing to focus on a set of challenging seminar topics including Intergenerational Wealth, Conservation, Education, Public Health, Emergency Response, and other topics.
Demographics is a function of fertility, mortality, and migration. The great global differences in population dynamics and quality of life are a function of how these factors play out against a background of natural resources, energy, technology, infrastructure, economics, and politics. Global population growth is slowing, but population growth in some developing countries is still increasing rapidly in the context of severe poverty. Some developed countries like the US experience population growth primarily through migration, but the US contributes far more than its share of population to CO2 production and global climate change. New Zealand has population challenges, but most of them are related to the age, skills, and geographic distribution associated with low population growth. There is no one demographic problem that covers all countries.
Demographics is a system of systems and depending on how you determine the boundaries of interest, the problems change, sometimes dramatically. In the early days of the environmental movement some blamed population growth for pollution and other forms of environmental destruction. But deeper analyses demonstrated that Environmental Impact is a function of Population x Affluence (consumption of energy and material resources) x Technology (potentially clean in the long run but often dirty in the short run). Further, population itself is often a function of poverty and education, and population growth slows dramatically when women are educated and not impoverished. These complex and interacting factors are driving not only climate change, but also aspects of global politics, warfare, and migration. There are no easy answers here.
What distinguishes this series is that it is inherently interdisciplinary, pairing a commitment to critical thinking, problem understanding, and a values-based approach to leadership. While programs may claim interdisciplinary approaches, they mostly stay inside relatively narrow frameworks -either social or technical. And yet our toughest problems such as pandemics, wars, and the sustainability of our environment and economy persist and fester -often over decades or longer. This is not because the problems are impossible to solve, but rather because we have not brought new and effective tools to our problem-solving efforts. We keep doing the same things and expecting different results. That is guaranteed to not work.
Why should we expect that values-based leadership will produce different results? That is a long conversation, but the heart of the answer is that too often leadership is tainted by vested interests, ideology, and short-term thinking. Values based leadership is about taking actions consistent with our values such as honesty, integrity, critical thinking, human health, economic flourishing, and environmental sustainability. Rather than promoting polarized points of view, values-based leadership recognises that effective problem solving results from evidence based solutions, and honouring legitimate tensions between economic efficiency and community, as well as tensions between individual freedom and equality. The Aspen Institute has sponsored over 60 years of productive and civil dialog about the trade-offs between these values.
And what makes critical thinking with systems dynamics promising? Critical thinking is about systematically avoiding the bugs and biases that permeate ideology driven systems of thought. It attempts to substitute evidence and rationality for unexamined assumptions and closed minded decision making. Systems dynamics was specifically designed to represent complex problems that change over time, often with feedback effects and trade-offs that are difficult for humans to understand without explicit modelling. Systems thinking is about modelling how systems work, potentially independent of values. Values are about the quality of our goals, but they don't guarantee our effectiveness in dealing with systems. Together, these disciplines reinforce both the quality of our objectives and our effectiveness in achieving them via the systems we design and manage. We claim a thoughtful combination of these approaches are worthy of our examination.
Aspen Institute Seminars are not about delivering simple answers and neat conclusions at the end. Rather, they are an opportunity to read relevant materials for common grounding, engage in open and disciplined inquiry, and discover a 360-degree perspective on polarized issues. This requires informed and thoughtful deliberation about the tensions between social values. This perspective is what is required to respect, honour, and work with people who seem to be on the "other side" of the issues you are most passionate about. We need to take the edge off our polarized political squabbling and accelerate effective solutions to our common problems. Many of these problems have been tolerated for way too long. They will not wait. The consequences of ignoring them have the potential to increase misery and even damage the human experiment. This seminar is one of your many opportunities to work with others to fight chaos with reason and civility.
This seminar will take place in three 2.5-hour sessions over two days.
Day 1: Morning Session: Critical Thinking about Population and Systems Dynamics - We examine some early thinking about demographics from Stanford population biologists who bring both insight and some confusion into the environmental impacts of population dialogue. We also study lessons from the practice of simulating businesses and government systems with systems dynamics modelling. When done well, this type of modelling includes variables in addition to population and economics and eventually incorporates whole systems and considerations of sustainability. We examine the question of where to intervene in complex systems for maximum leverage. Finally, we examine the relationship of systems thinking, population and consumption. What are the relative impacts of consumption vs population on climate change and the environment?
Day 1: Afternoon Session -Population Change and Movement - This session starts with an Economist article about population and migration. The session also includes foundational materials from the Institute of Migration Report. This material is critical for a 360 degree understanding of population dynamics, the demographic transition, and different types of migration. The session ends with a critical opinion piece published recently in Foreign Affairs on migration resulting from the war in Ukraine, and the possible impact of bias in the relative acceptance of different types of migrants to the surrounding countries.
Day 2: Morning Session -Demographic Policy Tradeoffs - This session focuses on the current, planned, and potential future policies designed to address problems of population and migration globally and in New Zealand specifically. An article from Ecowatch examines the problem of population decline. An LA Times editorial addresses the complex link between population decline and climate change. Finally, an article from the Irish Times takes the position that reducing the world population may be a bad idea. None of these articles is offered as gospel, but rather a common point of departure in what should be a lively and informative dialogue.
Each of the readings in the seminar Table of Contents is worthy of your attention. Some may be a bit long or complex, and it is okay to skim parts of them if you feel the need. However, we will refer to them specifically in each session. We will be asking you first about what the readings say, and then what you think about them.
During the seminar, what you say will not be recorded or used for attribution. It will serve you well to listen carefully to others, rather than just think about what you will say next. The moderators want to know what you think. They already know what they think. The focus of the discussion is on what the participants think about the readings. Rather than provide answers, the moderators will provide the questions for you to consider and answer. Please do not redirect by asking different questions. Please click on the Zoom Chat hand icon to be called on to speak to the specific question on the table. Click to lower your Zoom hand icon after you speak. Please be succinct and make your single point comment one or two minutes maximum. You are free to speak your mind, but please do so politely. Everyone will appreciate you staying focused and on topic. We look forward to a thoughtful and constructive conversation about the systems, values, and policies associated with a critical examination of population, migration, and values-based leadership.
Readings - Table of Contents
SESSION ONE: CRITICAL THINKING ABOUT POPULATION AND SYSTEMS DYNAMICS. NEIL JACOBSTEIN
Too Many People, Too Much Consumption, Paul Ehrlich and Anne H Ehrlich, Yale Environment 360, 4 August 2008
Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System, Donella Meadows , The Sustainability Institute, 1999
Overconsumption and Growth Economy Key Drivers of Environmental Crises, Isabella Dubach, University of New South Wales, 22 June 2020
SESSION TWO: POPULATION CHANGE AND MOVEMENT. PROFESSOR ALAN GAMLEN
Why the Demographic Transition is Speeding up, The Economist, 11 December 2021
World Population Prospects, UNDP World Population Prospects, 2019
World Migration Report 2022, International Organization for Migration - United Nations
Opinion Piece: The Ukrainian Exodus, Alexander Betts, Foreign Affairs, 28 March 2022
SESSION THREE: DEMOGRAPHY POLICY TRADE-OFFS. DISTINGUISHED PROF. EMERITUS PAUL SPOONLEY
All the People: What Happens if Humanity’s Ranks Start to Shrink? Michael Safi, The Guardian, 25 July 2020
A Reshaped Society, Chapter 1, The New New Zealand, Paul Spoonley
Op-Ed: The Complex Link Between Population Decline and a Warming Planet, Jade S. Sasser, Los Angeles Times, 7 June 2021
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The next Future Challenges seminar is on Intergenerational Equity. Join us!