Aspen Summer Series concludes with Great Power Rivalry
The final forum of the Aspen Summer Series on Geopolitical Challenges tackled one of the most critical issues of our era: the shifting landscape of Great Power Rivalry. Moderated by former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sir Don McKinnon, who referred to the panel as “AAA rated” with Robert Patman from the University of Otago, Rosemary Banks, former NZ Ambassador to the US, and Tom Udall, current US Ambassador to NZ. The discussion centred around the nature of 21st Century Great Power Rivalry, its impact in the Indo Pacific region, and NZ’s response to the changing geostrategic environment.
Great Power Rivalry has changed significantly since the Cold War era, according to Robert Patman:
“...Today, all states, including the superpowers, are confronted by security, economic, environmental and health challenges that do not respect borders and defy unilateral resolution. The quest for global dominance in such a world is likely to prove ever more elusive.”
Patman says that this interconnectivity is reducing single-power domination and that the 21st Century presents opportunities for small and middle-sized countries to step forward and take the lead.
Ambassador Udall spoke of the responsibility of the US and China to co-operate on climate change issues, to encourage and motivate the rest of the world to respond and effect change. He referred to the US and China as strategic competitors, rather than rivals, but discussed the international rules-based order that democracy is based upon, yet is not always abided to by autocracies such as China. He stated that the US seeks an open, secure and peaceful Indo Pacific, whereas they have witnessed an accelerated aggressiveness from China in the region since 2013, where the rules have not always been followed.
Former Ambassador to the US, Rosemary Banks, sees a revival of Great Power Rivalry playing out, with the Indo Pacific as its new stage. The growing significance of the region, which is home to the world's fastest-growing economies, globally significant trade routes, and increasing security issues, is driving this shift. The formation of new alliances and partnerships, such as the Quad and AUKUS, are reshaping the region's geopolitical landscape and potentially fuelling rivalry between China and the US. Banks questioned how NZ should position itself in the new geopolitical framework to preserve a safe, secure and open environment and spoke of the importance of NZ aligning itself with more like-minded partners, to help ease its reliance on China. Ambassador Udall added he saw great potential for NZ to increase its trade with the UK and EU.
Both Patman and McKinnon highlighted that China was now a very different country from 2008, when NZ signed a Free Trade Agreement with China. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership (since 2013), their values had moved further away from NZ’s. Patman also reiterated that many countries actively encouraged China’s rise to a major economic power, assuming that as their wealth and middle-class grew, they would naturally move towards a more democratic society; however, under Xi Jinping’s leadership, the opposite has occurred.
The forum highlighted the changing nature of Great Power Rivalry and its impact on the Indo Pacific region. It raised questions about NZ's response to this shifting geopolitical landscape and the importance of aligning with like-minded partners to preserve a safe, secure, and open environment.
For more highlights from the forum, watch the replay on our YouTube channel below or listen on our Apple Podcast ‘Beyond Borders’.
This article reflects the views of our panellists, Sir Don McKinnon (Aspen NZ Trustee, former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs), Robert Patman (University of Otago), Rosemary Banks (former NZ Ambassador to the US), and Tom Udall (US Ambassador to NZ).